David Presnell, Author of "Survive Until The End Comes" Warns Americans that We Can Expect A Serious Crisis Soon and a Major Economic Downturn. Agree or Disagree With His Predictions?
The Bible (KJV) tells us: Matthew 16:1 - "The Pharisees also with the Sadducees came, and tempting desired him that he would shew them a sign from heaven. Matthew 16:2 He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red."
Matthew 16:3 And in the morning, It will be foul weather today: for the sky is red and lowring. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?"
What caught my attention was why the reporter did not ask about these "major world events" this politician was talking about. The reporter acted like he knew exactly what the politician was talking about. What did this politician and reporter know that we do not know? These insiders have data and knowledge that we do not have. They know things that are about to take place that will never be released to the public. If you want to know the names of these people, just look it up on the Internet.
Again, the reporter never asked what "major crisis" he was talking about. The reporter went on to run Trump down. This reporter also seemed to know what crisis this politician was talking about.
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This is not conspiracy theory. These are facts, people! China is all upset that our new president is standing up to their pitiful trade policies and that Trump seems to recognize that Taiwan is a territory independent of China. The house of cards is quickly crumbling around the whole world. I wonder how many nuclear missiles Iran has today? We're paying for them, aren't we?
Many well-known and respected financial experts are predicting a total economic collapse or at least a serious economic downturn that will be unlike anything the world has ever seen, and they are predicting it will happen soon. I'm not an expert accountant or lawyer or financial expert like these people, so let's use some simple, common-sense math regarding this coming economic downturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA, is an average number representing 30 US Industrial Companies. It's been around since the late 1800's and is designed to give a snapshot of how the stock market and the country's economy is doing. Right now, March 2017, the DJIA has broken record highs after Trump's speech of $21,164.88. The current Price to Earnings ratio or P/E for the DJIA is 21.6. This roughly means that the price for all the 30 DJIA stocks is 21.6 times the total earnings per share for these companies. Read that again! It's important! Historically, the economy was considered excellent when the DJIA P/E Ratio was 10 to 12. The price of all the 30 DJIA stocks were selling at an average of 10 to 12 times their earnings. If we were to run the P/E numbers for today's 30 DJIA stocks at 10 times earnings, we would see a Dow Jones Industrial Average price of $9,798. If we were to do the numbers at a P/E of 12 times earnings, we would see a DJIA price of $11,758. Using this simple market indicator, we would see that the DJIA price of $21,164.88 is oversold to the tune of $9,406.88 or 80%. Our DJIA should be trading between $9,700 and $12,000. No more and no less in a healthy economy. So, either stock prices must drop over 40%, (total economic collapse), or earnings for the Dow 30 must increase over 50% and that means hyper-inflation and total economic collapse. Prices will skyrocket and the economy will suffer because people simply will not have enough money to purchase their basic necessities. Either way, it's the perfect storm!
So, who or what is keeping the DJIA at dangerously high prices? The Government is manipulating everything! I believe that it is likely that the Federal Reserve has been buying and selling stocks, especially through futures and options, since 1980. President Bush confirmed that on the nightly news if anyone was paying attention when the first bailout was approved. The central banks were also buying and selling stocks. When the housing crisis occurred, the Government had to cover its back, quickly.
Here is a brief excerpt from Wikipedia:
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The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, commonly referred to as a bailout of the U.S. financial system, is a law enacted in response to the subprime mortgage crisis authorizing the United States Secretary of the Treasury to spend up to $700 billion to purchase distressed assets (including stocks and real estate), especially mortgage-backed securities, and supply cash directly to banks. On October 1, 2008 the Senate debated and voted on an amendment to H.R. 1424, which substituted a newly revised version of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 for the language of H.R. 1424. The Senate accepted the amendment and passed the entire amended bill, voting 74–25. Additional unrelated provisions added an estimated $150 billion to the cost of the package and increased the length of the bill to 451 pages. The amended version of H.R. 1424 was sent to the House for consideration, and on October 3, the House voted 263–171 to enact the bill into law. President George W. Bush signed the bill into law within hours of its congressional enactment, creating the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to purchase failing bank assets. TARP was dwarfed by other guarantees and lending limits; analysis by Bloomberg found the Federal Reserve had, by March 2009, committed $7.77 trillion to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year. (Notice how close we really came back then to total economic collapse?)
Supporters of the plan argued that the market intervention called for by the plan was vital to prevent further erosion of confidence in the U.S. credit markets and that failure to act could lead to an economic depression (glad that didn't occur). Opponents objected to the plan's cost and rapidity, pointing to polls that showed little support among the public for "bailing out" Wall Street investment banks (through the purchase of stocks), claiming that better alternatives were not considered and that the Senate forced passage of the unpopular version through the opposing house by "sweetening" the bailout package.
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Note that our politicians extorted an additional $150 billion in unrelated (pork) costs to us taxpayers just to say yes to the bill. Take a moment and read this entire article on Wikipedia under "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008". It's well worth your time. Search "what corporations did the Government bail out (with stock purchases) in 2008" in your favorite search engine. There is a list of who took our money, who's still taking it and who still owes us for the loans. Also, look up the Dodd Frank Act. It's well worth pondering over.
In 1980, the DJIA was trading around $850. I was trying to learn how to trade stocks and actually make money. My research indicated that the DJIA took a healthy 3% to 3.5% price drop or correction every 3.5 years on average since the DJIA was developed in the late 1800's. You can include or exclude the Great Depression. It doesn't matter. The numbers worked, at least up until 1980. This correction every 3.5 years on average of 3% to 3.5% seemed to be the market's way of getting rid of failing companies, inflated prices, and other garbage and building back up on quality companies. It worked for the economy up until 1980! I learned another powerful secret that was no secret at all, that you could make money with. I learned that the DJIA ended most years higher than it opened at the beginning of the year. If you buy DJIA stocks in January and sell them in December, you would make money in most of the years. This was true during the Great Depression, too. This drop of the DJIA of 3-3.5% every 3.5 years needed to happen.
Stocks, over time, outperformed most other investments including gold and bonds and real estate. Then, after 1980, when the market seemed to be ready for a 3.5% or higher correction, Monday would start off with a drop of the DJIA of around 2%, then by noon, 3%, then, by 4pm, a 3.5% – 5% drop in the Dow. The markets overseas that night would drop a similar percentage. On Tuesday, stocks would open slightly lower, and with massive selling pressure, would begin dropping in price, typical of a 3.5-year market correction. Then, suddenly, by noon, the market leveled off and by closing usually was up no less than 2%. The next day, the market would recover and actually gain 1% to 2%, wiping out any losses that happened on Monday. I caught on to this in the early 80's and started studying why this was occurring. It seemed to me that as stocks went back up, institutional and individual investors, through simple research, were not buying stocks. So, who was? I noticed that M1 and M2 money supplies were dropping the same day that stocks were going up by almost the same dollar amount.
As time went on, it became clear to me that stocks were never fully allowed to correct themselves naturally, as they should have been allowed to do, except in 1987 when the Dow dropped over 22% to $1,738.74. The world called it Black Monday! The world didn't like the Federal Reserve's seeming manipulation of stocks. Most politicians denied that it was taking place, however, by December 1987, when no individuals or institutions were buying stocks in any great number, the DJIA was back up near $2,000 and closed at the end of the year with a 2.26% annual gain. What, the worst drop in history and the Dow recorded a 2.26% gain by the end of the year? By the end of 1988 the Dow had recorded a gain of 16.10%, and by the close of 1989 the DJIA recorded a gain that year of 26.96%. Unbelievable! Was the Government buying stock? I believe the Federal Reserve was and they did not like the uncontrolled '87 crash at all. Japan was buying stocks to help their economy, as was many other countries. Why shouldn't the Federal Reserve buy our stocks?
Corporate paper (including business stocks and bonds) was all the Federal Reserve purchased until World War One, when the Government forced them to purchase only Government backed paper to support the war. In the years leading up until the 2008 crash, people making money in stocks at that time didn't care as long as they were making money. They knew! Wall Street knew.
The problem was that banks caught on, and, with deregulation, anyone with a driver's license could borrow money from banks with little real collateral and no real proof of income, at least until 2008. People could take this borrowed money and buy stocks, real estate, or anything else. People inside the circle of power knew this artificial growth of the US economy could not be sustained.
A few politicians started pushing for laws that would make it constitutionally legal for us working people to convert some of our Social Security money into common stocks. Some claimed this would save the failing Social Security Trust Fund. Wow! If the Government could get half of us to convert half of our Social Security savings, (which is where I believe most of the money was being drawn from by the Feds to purchase stocks), then when the collapse comes, they could carefully control the fall (the term "soft landing" comes to mind) and, when all our Social Security money was gone, just blame it on our bad stock picks. This was never passed into law as far as I know but many politicians still like the idea. Once passed, it would be easy for the Government to buy and sell common stock too, ending our free market system.
Do not believe the Government's numbers about inflation. Just look at what you are paying for food, medicine, and healthcare. New diseases seem to appear every day, and new magic pills just happen to show up to treat the diseases. Sounds like a great business plan to me.
If you could invent a problem and its solution at the same time, then introduce the problem for free and sell the solution when it comes fully into demand, I suppose, you could make millions of dollars, but, that's another article.
We voted for President Trump because of the lack of hope or desperation. If someone like Trump can fix America, then maybe we should give him a chance. Just the other day, in a nearby town, I noticed a huge Trump sign still in the front yard of a typical home. It had "Trump" and "Make America Great Again" on it. Under this, it had the term "Vote Republican". The homeowner had taken duct tape and covered the word Republican. I know this man and he is definitely not, nor has ever been a Republican.
Trump was not elected because he was some super politician or some super world leader, or even the greatest businessman. Trump was elected because of people's powerful need for hope. Hope for a new job. Hope for a better tomorrow. Hope for America. People that I have talked to believe that he could be no worse than prior presidents on both sides and you can be sure that prior presidents and most other politicians do not like Trump.
Can Trump do all these things? Who knows. It looks like the people in Washington, on both sides, are never going to allow Trump a real chance. Plus, he's making mistakes. Traditional politicians spend a lot of time and money trying to avoid making voters mad. Trump is not a politician and he doesn't seem to care who he offends. Fine, if he can get the economy going again.
The trillions of dollars of fiat money pumped into the crashed economy since 2008 has not permanently fixed the problems. The causes of the crash are still there in the background waiting to present themselves in full power. Maybe it must go to bottom before it can truly recover. Remember the necessary 3-3.5% correction that would normally occur every 3.5 years. For the country to maintain a healthy growing economy, it demands a healthy correction every few years. Without it, the numbers become inflated. Today, stocks are dangerously overpriced and home values are being over appraised again. From 2005 through 2007, stocks that should have been selling (based on earnings) at $20 a share, were being sold for $40 per share. Homes that would actually sell for $75,000 were being appraised at $100,000. Some banks were loaning 100% on the $40 stock and 125% of the appraised value of the home.
During the same boom years, a medium-sized older corporation with lots of assets on the books at highly inflated values could, through various methods, borrow 300% or more on the book value of their businesses. Many of these companies still show most of this debt on their books. And, if you and I wanted a credit card, all we had to do was request one, or five, and it was just as easy to get $5,000 to $10,000 credit lines. I received a credit card from my main bank back around 2005 (which took 3.1 billion from us tax payers to stay open in 2009) with a $12,000 credit line and 6% interest. My household did not produce enough income to afford cards with lines this high. The use of individual debt was, and still is to a large degree, keeping our economy operating.
If a million credit cardholders suddenly get letters that their credit lines have been increased by $1,000, then when this line is spent (usually a few days or weeks), the economy just got a one billion dollar shot in the arm. The problem is most of us cannot afford to pay these loans back at 19 – 29% interest. This is a false economy generated by borrowed dollars. Most research indicates the United States borrows over 500 billion dollars per year, mostly from foreign countries.
Sales have not picked up to the levels they need to grow and prices have been deeply discounted to move inventory and pay daily expenses. Think about your Black Friday sales. I can buy many things online right now, in March 2017, that I believe are being sold below cost (much lower than before Christmas) by these businesses just to raise operating cash. Without some immediate influx of emergency cash, many of these businesses will fail soon. Does the Government have the cash to pump into these businesses without causing hyperinflation? I do not believe they do! The companies that are doing great, right now, tell us that their biggest problem is the lack of quality skilled and unskilled labor. Schools are not turning out highly educated or skilled labor. How can we grow an economy if there are not enough quality labor to produce the goods and services? Look it up on the Internet. We're in bad shape!
Can or will people pay this debt back? Where is this money coming from? I believe these two things, personal debt ($12.6 trillion) and business debt ($29 trillion), combined with the deterioration of business and personal assets are already causing the economic downturn to begin. Most of the people I talk to, and most of my research indicates that many people and businesses are broke. Many of us are operating on credit cards and other forms of high interest debt. The United States owes almost 20 trillion dollars; however, it only has a revenue of a little more than $3 trillion. See www.usdebtclock.org for some staggering numbers.
Some people ask me why I do not refer to the coming downturn as a total collapse. If you would go back to 2005 and measure the economy up until now, without the input of government fiat money, you would learn that "total collapse" has been in progress for the last ten years. I think all the fighting and bickering in Washington is accelerating the collapse. Record highs stocks and debt are accelerating the collapse. I think banks refusing to loan money is accelerating the collapse, even though this will make the problem worse in the long term. Record weather events or acts of God are accelerating the collapse. I do not believe the economy can be fixed. I think it must totally collapse and go to the bottom before it can really start to get better.
Many experts believe this, too, and have for years. This is bad news for the economy and for the people of the United States of America. This has happened many times before in our country and around the world, usually leading to depression and major wars. It sadly seems to take major wars and the collapse of world economies to get things started back on track. If you take a balloon and keep blowing air in it long enough, it will pop.
If you realize the balloon is too big, you might let some air escape.
If you keep blowing it up and letting it down, it will weaken and still, eventually pop. If you take a little needle and try to let a little air out of an overfilled balloon, it will pop.
I'm afraid our world is so over inflated with worthless paper that it will be difficult, if not impossible to fix. Hope in Trump has already started the process of creating jobs, but if the geniuses in Washington do not get their act together soon, anything positive will quickly be undone. The United States economy booms when people have hope in the future and feel positive about the economy. Investors feeling good about the future probably puts more people to work than some computer generated financial data.
This event, whatever it is, will lead to a 12% ($2,500) or more drop in the DJIA over a short period and a continued decline bringing the DJIA to $14,000 or less, quickly.
What should you do now? Go to my website SurviveUntiltheEndComes.com and get a copy of my book "The Hardcore Prepper's Guide to Survival Bartering: Live Without Dollars and Without Debt." This inexpensive book will offer you some immediate solutions and simple preparations on what to do with your cash now for the rough days ahead.
Start thinking about your investments. Talk to your investment and banking experts. I'm not an accountant or attorney or other licensed professional. Seek their advice before you do anything. Learn how safe your retirement money is (if you have any left). What stocks has your broker or banker invested for you? If the DJIA dropped 18% tomorrow, what position would you be in? How much money do you have in cash? Do you own any real gold or silver? Do you have a three-to six-month supply of high quality food and water on hand? Do you have a generator and fuel safely stored back? If the electricity went off at your home and business for one month, how would you survive that? These are the questions you need to consider now. You do not have to spend much money to learn!
If all this never happens, and you prepare, study, and practice essential skills, then you are all the smarter for it. If it does happen, then your preparations and study, including practiced skills development (see my survival books), may save you and your family's lives. I fully believe that the greatest asset you can ever possess is the information that lies between your ears. I call it knowledge. Knowledge alone is not enough. You must put that knowledge to practice and develop the skills that create independence from worldly needs. With enough knowledge and practiced experience and help from God, you can survive just about anything.
I hope that you Survive Until The End Comes!